The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been raging for over a month by now, with over 6 million refugees fleeing the country, estimated death tolls of over 46,000 and Ukrainian towns and infrastructure destroyed by the Russian military. The defense of Kyiv ended on April 7 with Ukrainian victory and the Russian military is now pressing into the Donbas region in east Ukraine.
When the Russian military invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the whole world was shocked by the sudden return of war in Europe after decades without a major war in Europe and advances in freedom, peace and economic co-dependence after the fall of the iron curtain that was meant to increase stability across Europe. Initial reports suggested that the situation was very grim for Ukraine, and Russian forces made their way to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, within days of the invasion starting. As the war has continued, however, Ukraine proved its strength to the world by holding off the Russian military for much longer than expected.
In the days leading up to April 7, Ukrainian forces took back the area surrounding Kyiv, but the aftermath of the Russian occupation is now accessible to Ukrainian authorities and journalists in Kyiv, with destroyed buildings throughout the outer towns in the area. The Russian army has also been accused of war crimes after the bodies of at least 300 civilians were found in the town of Bucha, with evidence suggesting that many of them had been executed by the Russian army. The Russian government has denied any involvement between their armed forces and the war crimes in Bucha.
Russian forces may have pulled out of central and northern Ukraine, but they are now focusing their resources on the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway states in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Seventeen additional battalions of troops moved across the border in mid-April, with more expected to follow as Russia continues to throw its weight into the region. These regions have been a point of contention since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and have had active military engagements between separatist forces and the Ukrainian military during that time. So far, the Russian military is making slow progress despite its numerical advantage, with destruction and casualties expected to be similar to what was seen in central Ukraine.
On the southeastern coast of Ukraine between the Donbas region and Crimea, the siege of Mariupol ended on May 16. Russian forces were attacking the Azovstal steel plant, the last stronghold in the area, for weeks and civilians were evacuated and sent to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Zaporizhzhya. Attacks on Mariupol started the day after the invasion started on Feb. 25 and caused an estimated death toll of 21,000 civilians due to the Russian siege and bombardment. The Ukrainian forces surrendered on May 16 after weeks of bombardment and skirmishes, slowly losing supplies with no possibility for reinforcements.
Russia’s flagship in the Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, sank on April 14. Russian authorities claim that an onboard fire caused the sinking, but Ukraine claims that it was their own cruise missiles that took out the ship, with US intelligence backing the claim. This is the same ship that bombed Snake Island at the start of the war, and the second major Russian ship that has been sunk since the start of the war. The destruction of the ship means Russia now has one less ship in the Black Sea, with no replacements available due to Turkey closing off the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits to warships. The Moskva reportedly lost 28 crew members, with 27 of them being missing and the remaining 396 members being evacuated to the city of Sevastopol in Crimea. Additionally, the rest of the Russian armed forces are also experiencing large equipment losses, with one example being the failed bridge crossing across the Siverskyi Donets, where an entire battalion was lost to Ukrainian artillery.
Amid the Russian invasion and possible threat to Ukraine’s southwestern neighbor, Moldova, both Finland and Sweden have reconsidered their neutral stance and are looking into joining NATO to deter a potential invasion. These announcements came mainly as a surprise, as both Finland and Sweden have historically decided against membership, but polls are showing that NATO support in the two countries is at a historic high and both governments have started the process of joining the alliance. Unfortunately, threats of retaliation from Russia are not the only obstacle, as NATO member state Turkey has threatened to block the Nordic countries from joining due to a mix of disputes mainly over support for the Kurdish Workers’ Party, a US-designated terrorist group aiming to create an independent Kurdish nation in southeastern Turkey.
Moldova, a landlocked country between Romania and Ukraine, has seen high levels of tensions as the possibility of a Russian invasion continues to increase. Much like Ukraine, Moldova is a neutral, former Soviet republic with a Russian-backed breakaway region in the east, Transnistria. With Russian commander Rustam Minnekaev releasing a statement that the Russian forces want a land corridor to Moldova, the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria since 1992, and recent explosions in the region claimed to be a Russian plot to raise tensions and an excuse to invade, the small neutral country may soon find itself in a similar situation as Ukraine, which would leave the many refugees already in Moldova forced to run further east. Unlike Sweden and Finland however, Moldova’s position as a small seemingly weak nation with a lack of control over the Transnistria region means that the possibility of joining NATO is highly unlikely.
As the war in Ukraine continues, many of the uncertainties surrounding the war will be resolved, but conclusions to these issues will take time. Thankfully, through massive support from the west and unexpected Ukrainian strength, the war may be able to come to a much better end than the total annexation of Ukraine that was expected in February.
