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A recently discovered asteroid had a more than a one percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is between 130 and 330 feet across. However, no one should panic, the rock is in no way a planet killer.
The Probability of the Asteroid Hitting Earth
The asteroid was discovered in December of 2024, by an Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, (ATLAS), station in Chile. Since the asteroid has a high chance of impact, it caused the first International Asteroid Warning Network, (IAWN), to send out its first warning on January 29. The impact probability was initially set at a 1.3% chance of impact. However, it has since been raised to around a 1.9% chance. Which then later was upped to a 3.1% chance, the highest ever. Fortunately, the percentage was lowered to a less than one percent chance. The asteroid is now more likely to hit the moon.
Potential Impact of the Asteroid
Though the chances of the asteroid impacting the moon are slim, its potential impact still poses as a potential danger. If the asteroid ends up colliding with the moon and it turns out to be big enough, it could break off chunks of the moon and send them barreling towards the Earth. The moon is also responsible for controlling our tides, keeping our rotation axis on point, stabilizing the climate, and many other things. While it wouldn’t destroy the moon completely, it could still have catastrophic effects. If the asteroid is smaller, and it does collide with the moon, it would just create another crater and have no adverse effects. The chances of even this are still extremely small.
